Monthly Outlook

Temperatures will be above the seasonal average for much of the time through the next four weeks, with some areas particularly warm for a couple of days in the coming week.

It will be unsettled but stretches of drier days should develop, perhaps most likely in the second half of October.

Changeable but warmer than average

The weekend will have a mixture of sunshine and showers, although much of Wales and England will be dry for most of the time. Showers will be mostly across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where there will be strong and gusty winds, with more widespread rain arriving during Sunday. Showery rain will progress across the rest of the UK later Sunday.

By Monday morning, winds will drop and as high pressure starts to move across, and it may be clear and calm enough for fog patches, particularly in parts of England and Wales. The rest of the day will be dry across most of the UK aside from a chance of showers in northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

High pressure will become centred east of the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday while a large and intense low pressure system develops west of Ireland. This will induce brisk - or even strong - but unusually warm southeast or southerly winds. Showery rain, some heavy, will edge across the western and northern UK on Tuesday then other areas during Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely.

This low pressure system should swing away north-westwards but minor low pressure circulations, troughs and fronts are likely to cross the UK through the rest of the week, with transient high pressure ridges between. There will be periods of rain or showers, potentially thundery, interspersed with drier, sunnier periods. It will become less warm but temperatures should remain slightly above average.

Unsettled but still warm for the time of year

The following week will have less chance of being quite as warm, but temperatures are expected to remain mostly above normal for early October. High pressure will be anchored over eastern Europe and Scandinavia with low pressure occasionally flirting with the UK.

Overall, it should be a somewhat less wet week with near-average rainfall amounts but western areas may have more wet and windy periods than eastern regions. Nevertheless, there should be at least a few showery outbreaks with chances of isolated thunderstorms. During drier and calmer periods there could be a higher chance of overnight and early morning fog patches, with some chillier nighttime conditions.

Drier at first with above average temperatures

Through the middle of October, low pressure may become more prevalent across the UK, so a wetter week may be in store, with higher chances of periodic rain alongside possibly stronger winds at times. Nevertheless, it is probable that temperatures will widely stay above average rather than falling below.

The second half of October suggests some signs of high pressure reasserting itself. So, another drier-than-average period could be in store, although that doesn't preclude chances of a little rain in places.

When nights are still and clear, there could be chances of fog patches and chillier conditions, but overall daytime temperatures should be higher than the long-term average and there are no indications yet of any early cold outbreaks.

Tuesday's outlook should confirm the expectations of mostly above-average temperatures for October but precipitation patterns may still be uncertain.